Week Three Projections
With the week off, model review was done in the last post. They’ve been pretty spot on so far.
Club ratings have been updated from last week’s outcomes, so we re-ran simulations and have new projections. For a bit more depth, check out the match predictions in the Current Projections page. Or check out the Six Nations Status page
Italy v Ireland
Club Model: Ireland by 14.6
Lineup Model: Ireland by 9.6
This should be straightforward. Ireland are heavy favorites. But it is in Rome, and Italy has been surprising this year.
Simulations now have Ireland winning by 16 points, on average.
| Outcomes | Occurrence in Simulation |
|---|---|
| Ireland Victory | 87.5% |
| Ireland Victory, Losing Bonus Point | 10.9% |
| Italy Victory, Losing Bonus Point | 1.3% |
| Tie | 0.3% |
Wales v England
Club Model: England by 3.3
Lineup Model: England by 10.9
There’s a lot of issues in the Welsh rugby union right now, and even though England are solidly favored in this match it could really go either way. I think we’re more likely to see some extreme results, given emotional states and new coaching teams.
Simulations now have England winning by 3.8 points, on average.
| Outcomes | Occurrence in Simulation |
|---|---|
| England Victory, Losing Bonus Point | 40.8% |
| England Victory | 27.8% |
| Wales Victory, Losing Bonus Point | 21.8% |
| Tie | 5.4% |
| Wales Victory | 4.2% |
France v Scotland
Teamsheets haven’t been announced yet. May update this tomorrow.
Simulations now have France winning by 6.2 points, on average.
| Outcomes | Occurrence in Simulation |
|---|---|
| France Victory | 42.8% |
| France Victory, Losing Bonus Point | 37.4% |
| Scotland Victory, Losing Bonus Point | 13.4% |
| Tie | 4.3% |
| Scotland Victory | 2.1% |
Simulation for the Next Three Weeks
| Team | Average Wins | Average Point Differential | Average Competition Points (Without Future 4 Try Bonuses) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ireland | 2 + 2.79 = 4.79 | 37 + 35.33 = 72.33 | 10 + 11.32 = 21.32 |
| France | 1 + 2.42 = 3.42 | -8 + 23.61 = 15.61 | 5 + 10.11 = 16.11 |
| Scotland | 2 + 1.34 = 3.34 | 34 + 2.61 = 36.61 | 10 + 2.61 = 12.61 |
| England | 1 + 1.12 = 2.12 | 11 + -12.14 = -1.14 | 6 + 5.21 = 11.21 |
| Italy | 0 + 0.68 = 0.68 | -22 + -27.7 = -49.7 | 1 + 3.22 = 4.22 |
| Wales | 0 + 0.65 = 0.65 | -52 + -21.7 = -73.7 | 0 + 3.52 = 3.52 |
Another 10,000 simulations of the next four weeks, combined with the actual results from the first weekend, gives us the above table. Not a lot of change from last week, but perhaps there’s more of a fight for second place. We’ll see how the Scotland-France lineups look: a lot now rides on that match