Model Review

After 6, our club level model is 5 of 6, and the player models are 6 of 6. Interestingly, the player model was a bit less accurate than the club model for the Ireland v France match, which may point to a bit of an overvaluation of Irish players, or an undervaluation of French players. If such a misevaluation exists, it may be caused by the separation of the Top 14 and the URC, as those clubs would only really play in the ERCC tournaments. Both tournaments are underway, but clubs may have put out some sub-par sides in the group stages.

All number are using the most recent models, and always predict a match using only data available before that match kicks off. Except for the Player Minutes model, of course, as we need the match to be played to see how long any player is on the field.

Match	Club Level Prediction	Lineup Prediction	Minutes Prediction	Result
IRE @ WAL	IRE by 10.1	IRE by 18.1	IRE by 19.4	IRE by 24
SCO @ ENG	ENG by 6.3	SCO by 7.1	SCO by 4	SCO by 6
FRA @ ITA	FRA by 10.7	FRA by 12.7	FRA by 11	FRA by 5
FRA @ IRE	IRE by 7.5	IRE by 26	IRE by 30.1	IRE by 13
WAL @ SCO	SCO by 9.5	SCO by 29.3	SCO by 27.7	SCO by 28
ITA @ ENG	ENG by 14.9	ENG by 11.8	ENG by 10.7	ENG by 17
Average Errors	9.7	5.7	6.1

For a bit more depth, check out the match recaps in the Recent Matches page

Current Table

Team	Wins	Point Differential	Competition Points
Ireland	2	37	10
Scotland	2	34	10
England	1	11	6
France	1	-8	5
Italy	0	-22	1
Wales	0	-52	0